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Impacto del calentamiento global en la distribución y supervivencia del pinsapo (Serranía de Ronda)

Oliver Gutiérrez Hernández

Resumen


Tras la retirada de los hielos glaciares del Cuaternario, los abetos se replegaron hacia el norte o ascendieron en altitud hacia las montañas. Escindido del tronco común del abeto primigenio, Abies pinsapo persiste como especie relicta y endémica de la Serranía de Ronda, y una de las reliquias más meridionales de la aciculisilva. En este trabajo, desarrollamos un ensamblaje de modelos de nicho ecológico del pinsapo calibrados con datos actuales y proyectados hasta el horizonte 2100 según los escenarios previstos por el IPCC (AR5) regionalizados para el área de estudio. Nuestros modelos estimaron una drástica reducción de la distribución potencial de la especie en el área de estudio, incluso la desaparición del espacio ecológico del pinsapo en el peor de los escenarios.


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21138/bage.2532

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Copyright (c) 2018 Oliver Gutiérrez Hernández

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ISSN papel: 0212-9426 / ISSN digital: 2605-3322 / Revista editada por la Asociación de Geógrafos Españoles (Madrid, España).